Ahh, December football. When Super Bowl hopefuls play their best ball and others race to the bottom and the number one draft pick.
The next few weeks of NFL football will ultimately determine where the chips fall in the playoff picture, so let’s take a look at December’s top playoff contenders.
AFC – No. 1 Seed Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
Despite the reigning Super Bowl champions sitting in the number one seed with the best record in the AFC, the Chiefs have had many plunders and barely eked out some of their wins this season. They have the lowest point differential of any 11-1 team in NFL history (+54) – not an envied statistic.
The Chiefs went 9-0 before the Buffalo Bills handed them their first loss in Week 11. The loss could become a deciding factor in who takes the number one seed with the Bills knocking on the door, ready to cash in on any sign of weakness. With some of their most recent games being extremely close calls, it may only be a matter of time before the wheels fall off for Kansas City.
No. 2 Seed Buffalo Bills (10-2)
The Bills are on a seven-game win streak and are 10-2 for the first time since 1991. They claimed the AFC East title in Week 13 with a win over the San Francisco 49ers.
While the Bills are capable of winning every remaining game on their schedule with QB Josh Allen playing some of the best football of his career, their toughest match will come versus the red-hot Detroit Lions in Week 15. One more loss could dash the Bills’ chances of securing the number one seed, and the team will be watching the Chiefs closely.
No. 3 Seed Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
One of the bigger surprises of the season, the Steelers are duking out the AFC North crown with the Baltimore Ravens (8-5) and will have to play consistent football to take the division title. Pittsburgh already has a Week 11 win over Baltimore which may serve as an important tie-breaker.
If Pittsburgh doesn’t take the title, they have a high likelihood of claiming a wild card spot. However, the team has a difficult remaining schedule that includes three games in ten days. They will face the Chiefs on Christmas Day for a critical Week 17 matchup.
No. 4 Seed Houston Texans (8-5)
There’s no room to get comfortable for the Texans who must battle it out in December. The Indianapolis Colts are two games behind them (6-7) and after a division title.
The Texans will not have an easy December stretch, facing the Miami Dolphins (5-7), Chiefs, and Ravens back-to-back in the final few weeks. Performing consistently will be crucial to holding down a top four seed.
In the Hunt
The Los Angeles Chargers (8-4), Baltimore Ravens (8-5), and Denver Broncos (8-5) currently sit in wild card spots with the Indianapolis Colts (6-7) and Miami Dolphins (5-7) close behind.
The Ravens were thought to be a shoo-in for the playoffs, with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson having another award-worthy season. However, the team has struggled through their last few games, including a loss to the Super Bowl hopeful Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) in Week 13.
Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers have a very winnable December schedule, perhaps with the most difficult game being Week 14 against the division rival Chiefs. The Chargers will face the Broncos for the second time in Week 16 after taking a victory from them earlier this season, which may determine the wild card seeding if both teams are able to claim a spot.
The Broncos will likely have a higher level of difficulty in their remaining games, including a key Week 15 matchup vs. the Colts where Indianapolis will be hungry for a playoff spot. If the Chargers and Broncos both make it into the post-season in addition to the Chiefs, the AFC West would do something rarely done by having three teams featured in the playoffs.
NFC – No. 1 Seed Detroit Lions (11-1)
Don’t look now… but the Lions are making a championship run. In Dan Campbell’s short four-year tenure with the team, he took them from 3-13-1 in 2021, to 9-8 in 2022, to 12-5 with the team’s first division title since 1993 last season. If Campbell continues this trend, Detroit has a lot to be hopeful for this year.
Although division rivals the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) and Green Bay Packers (9-3) are not far behind, the Lions hold a win over each of them and the energy of this team simply cannot be matched.
No. 2 Seed Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
From a devastating 2022 season Super Bowl loss to an even more disappointing 2023, the Eagles are looking to be NFC East champions this time around, with a shot at the number one seed to boot.
Their only division competition are the Washington Commanders (7-5), who the Eagles hold a win over. Key to their playoff run will be their games against the AFC contender Steelers in Week 15 and a second matchup with the Commanders in Week 16.
No. 3 Seed Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
The current number three and four seeds in the NFC lead their division but have fewer wins than several wild card contenders. The NFC West is neck-in-neck battling it out for the division title.
The Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams are behind a game at 6-6, and the San Francisco 49ers are close behind at 5-7. No matter which team takes the NFC West, it’s possible they’ll have a less-than-impressive record to show for it.
No. 4 Seed Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
The Falcons’ competition for the NFC South title will be the defending NFC South title holders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who currently hold the same record of 6-6. The Falcons hold a tie-breaking 2-0 record over the Buccaneers this season, so Tampa will have to attempt to finish with a better record.
Although it’s been an up-and-down season for QB Kirk Cousins and his team, December is a month of opportunity and will show if the Falcons truly have what it takes to earn a spot in the playoffs.
In the Hunt
The Vikings (10-2), Packers (9-3), and Commanders (8-5) boast wild card spots as of now, with the Buccaneers (6-6), Cardinals (6-6), Rams (6-6), and 49ers (5-7) on the outside looking in.
If the Vikings can’t catch up to the Lions, they are almost guaranteed a wild card spot if they continue at their current pace with many winnable opportunities in December. Their most challenging games will be against division rivalries in Weeks 17 and 18 vs. the Packers and then the Lions.
The Packers follow suit with their rival Vikings, one game behind, but with many opportunities left and a wide-open playoff door, but a more challenging remaining schedule which includes the Dolphins, Lions, and Seahawks.
Week 16 vs. the Eagles and Week 17 vs. the Falcons will be the most important matchups for the Commanders that may determine seeding and if the Commanders can, in fact, make it into the postseason.
It’s evident by the current number three and four seeds that the NFC may have wild card teams positioned against division winners with fewer wins. Whatever happens, the NFC Wild Card round will have tight matchups as January brings playoff competition.
