By David Seaman | Echo
The nominations for the 86th Academy Awards were announced Jan. 16. It is quite a mix this year, with movies ranging from epics featuring Sandra Bullock lost in space to comedies showcasing Leonardo DiCaprio as a sleazy stockbroker. "American Hustle," David O. Russell's latest film to star aggravating characters, and "Gravity," the latest from mastermind Alfonso Cuaron, lead with 10 nominations apiece.
There's some notable nods to actors as well: Best Supporting Actress nominee June Squibb, at age 84, is the third-oldest nominee in that category, and 23-year-old Jennifer Lawrence is the youngest actress to be nominated for three Academy Awards. There is controversy as well; the Best Original Song nomination for the title song of "Alone Yet Not Alone," an obscure faith-based film, was revoked after composer Bruce Broughton emailed members of the Academy to make them aware of his submission during nominations voting. The exclusion of the documentary "Blackfish" from Best Documentary has also received negative reactions. But really, what would the Oscars be without some disagreement? Arguments over who was snubbed and who should win are part of the fun. In the six major categories, here are the films and stars I think will win-versus who I think should win.
Best Picture:
Nominees: "American Hustle," "Her," "Gravity," "12 Years a Slave," "Captain Phillips," "Philomena," "The Wolf of Wall Street," "Nebraska" and "Dallas Buyers Club"
Will win: "12 Years a Slave"
The Academy loves a good historical drama. "12 Years" has all that and more, along with fantastic acting and cinematography. But to be perfectly honest, I think there will be an uproar if it doesn't win. Slavery and racism has far too long been a bane for America, and this movie explores the theme with such unflinching honesty that a viewer is forced to confront the horrors of the past. "12 Years a Slave" won't win because it's the best picture of the year, but because it's the most important one.
Should win: "12 Years a Slave"
Best Actor:
Nominees: Christian Bale in "American Hustle," Bruce Dern in "Nebraska," Leonardo DiCaprio in "The Wolf of Wall Street," Chiwetel Ejiofor in "12 Years a Slave" and Matthew McConaughey in "Dallas Buyers Club"
Will win: Chiwetel EjioforEjiofor plays Solomon Northrup with such intensity and earnestness that he makes Christian Bale and the rest pale in comparison. I will also say that Tom Hanks was snubbed for "Captain Phillips." Watch the last 10 minutes of that film and tell me that is not fantastic acting.
Should win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Best Actress:
Nominees: Sandra Bullock in "Gravity," Judi Dench in "Philomena," Meryl Streep in "August: Osage County," Cate Blanchett in "Blue Jasmine" and Amy Adams in "American Hustle"
Will win: Judi Dench
Dame Judi has been nominated numerous times and won Best Supporting Actress for "Shakespeare in Love" (in which she was on screen for about eight minutes). Her unexpected warmth in a film like "Philomena" and previous Oscar experience make her my pick. The only competition I see here is from Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock.
Should win: Sandra Bullock
Sandra Bullock has proven herself as a serious actor in the last few years. Her vulnerable performance in "Gravity" was one of the best performances of the year. It's her facial expressions, the way she reacts to a terrifying experience, that pulls the audience in. Even with all the visual splendor, it's the very human performance of Bullock that grounds the film.
Best Supporting Actor:
Nominees: Barkhad Abdi in "Captain Phillips," Bradley Cooper in "American Hustle," Michael Fassbender in "12 Years a Slave," Jonah Hill in "The Wolf of Wall Street" and Jared Leto in "Dallas Buyers Club"
Will win: Jared Leto
This is tough competition. But, for me, Leto is a sure lock. The Academy loves a transformative performance, and the multi-talented 30 Seconds from Mars frontman definitely transforms himself into the transgendered Rayon. Even if you disagree with the performance on a moral level, he is still utterly convincing in the role in "Dallas Buyers Club."
Should win: Barkhad Abdi
In an area known for overacting, Abdi is a quiet triumph. His chilling and subtle performance as the Somali pirate Muse in "Captain Phillips" is even more impressive given that Abdi is a first-time actor. He makes the role his own; his lust for money and acceptance take him down a dark and overwhelming path, and his willingness to go that far gives the film great nuance.
Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees: Sally Hawkins in "Blue Jasmine," June Squibb in "Nebraska," Lupita Nyong'o in "12 Years a Slave," Jennifer Lawrence in "American Hustle" and Julia Roberts in "August: Osage County"Will win: Jennifer Lawrence
America and the Academy can't get enough of Lawrence. At 23 she has already been nominated twice for Best Actress, winning last year for her nutty performance in "Silver Linings Playbook." She's equally crazy here, but it's good crazy. Hollywood needs more quirky stars like Lawrence, and I think the Academy recognizes that. Give the people what they want.
Should win: Lupita Nyong'o
Her broken performance as Patsey in "12 Years a Slave" is yet another reason to watch the film. I'm hoping for a win for her, but Lawrence is too hot right now.
Best Director:
Nominees: Martin Scorsese for "The Wolf of Wall Street," David O. Russell for "American Hustle," Alfonso Cuaron for "Gravity," Steve McQueen for "12 Years a Slave" and Alexander Payne for "Nebraska"Will win: Steve McQueen
No, not the "Great Escape" actor. This McQueen has plenty of emotion and significance behind his style, and his breathtaking cinematography and long shots give even more gravitas to an already all-around excellent picture.
Should win: Alfonso Cuaron
Now here is a director's movie. Every scene, every movement, every breath of "Gravity" feels like Cuaron's style. That magnificent 17-minute shot of George Clooney floating toward you, uncut? All Cuaron. The triumphant moment when Bullock's character emerges (one might say evolves) from the water toward land? That's all him. Intensely emotional, dramatically breathtaking, Cuaron knows how each part of "Gravity" will pull the audience in, investing them in the grandeur of space and the vulnerability of human life. It's very good filmmaking.
2013 was a great year for movies. Veteran filmmakers and performers proved their talent once again, and newcomers redefined what make movies so great in the first place. It is all worth celebrating. Tune in March 2 on ABC to see Ellen DeGeneres host the Awards. I hope you and I are pleasantly surprised by the results.
